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Wayne Swan's pursuit of a budget surplus is misguided.
In Brief
Explainer by The YourView Team
Next week Wayne Swan delivers the 2012-13 budget, and the signs are that this one will show a surplus. It may be a modest one, but a surplus all the same.
But is this really a good idea?
Dickens' character Mr Micawber famously said: "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery."
For Wayne Swan, a budget deficit would be political misery indeed.
For one thing, he's publicly promised to deliver a surplus. To renege on this promise would add fuel to the firestorm of criticism of the Labour government for breaking promises.
For another, his previous four budgets have all been in deficit. Sure, he's had to GFC to contend with. But with yet another deficit, Labour might be going to the next election having never balanced the books, handing political opponents another heavy rhetorical cudgel.
So Wayne Swan has powerful political motivations be seen to be delivering a surplus. But doing so will require very heavy cuts to government spending.
Tim Colebatch claims that Wayne Swan's cuts are estimated to amount to around 2.5% of GDP -more than any previous government has cut from the economy. Possibly enough to tip the country into a recession.
Still, Wayne Swan says that a budet surplus is a vital economic objective. Is he right? Here are some of the main arguments being circulated:
It is misguided because... |
It is NOT misguided because... |
|
It will slow the economy.At a time when the mainstream (non-mining) economy is struggling, due to both the continued effects of the GFC and to the distortions created by the mining boom, slashing government spending to will put the brakes on economic growth and possibly even induce a recession. Critical social needs will be denied.It is wrong to cut funding for critical social needs such as health and education when such funding can be maintained by deferring a return to surplus to better economic times. It will lead to greater costs later.The financial and social damage done by slashing government spending in difficult economic times will have to be redressed - at much greater cost - further down the road. |
It will prepare Australia for a possible second GFC.Australia came through the recent GFC relatively unscathed in part because its strong financial position allowed it to respond decisively via government spending and lowering of interest rates. Creating budget surpluses now will help create a similar buffer in case crisis returns. It will give the RBA flexibility to cut interest rates.The best way to help the non-mining economy would be for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates. A budget surplus will give the RBA flexibility to do this. It will reduce future debt burdens.Budget deficits have to be repaid with interest at some point. Many Western countries are now burdened with crippling debt burdens. To avoid this fate, Australia must shift back to running budget surpluses at the earliest opportunity. |
What do you think? How good are these arguments? Where does the balance lie?
[Image: publik16, Flickr]
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Views (38)
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FOR (21)
It seems pretty clear that Labor's commitment to a surplus at this time is purely political. If they don't manage it they will be called liars and incompetents. That being said, I think it is important to start moving towards a surplus by cutting various pieces of spending and tax breaks (like negative gearing and 'middle class welfare'). However, whether this budget is actually in surpluss or slightly short of surpluss is economically irrelevent. Swan's only concern should be in delivering a budget that will keep Australia in a good economic position. Surplusses per se (and if there is a surplus it will be a very small one) have nothing to do with this.
The goal should be good stewardship. A surplus or a deficit may be part of that.
The current budgetary position is a combination of lower revenue and higher spending. Although the Government should be applauded for reigning back the stimulus implemented during the GFC, to make further cuts to programs whilst revenue is still recovering is not helpful. In any case a large portion of the surplus appears to have been gained by playing accounting silly buggers. When a surplus is being pursued by pushing back and bringing forward expenditure, it's not a real surplus at all. In fact, doing this reduces efficiency (as rushing to spend funds in the previous fiscal leads to waste) and reduces co-investment and policy outcomes (by creating uncertainty about the timing of future funding).
If Swan had real backbone, he'd let the deficit occur or target subsidies for rich industries and tax breaks for rich people to achieve his surplus.
Governments should pursue the flourishing of the nation. And budgets are there to serve that. To pursue surplus for its own sake turns it into a bizarre false god.
Australia is at the cross roads of needing to catch up in lacked social capital investment. We need to invest hugely in education, urban infrastructure and social housing, and whilst not all of these capital investment need to be raised through the budget and consolidated fund, it is in the absence of realistically increasing government revenue, justified to provide budget leverage funding to enable the necessary off-budget borrowings through guided superannuation funds investments incentives to occur programmatically, to secure finance capital for social program investments. This is precisely how well governed social-liberal democracies like The Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Germany and others are funding their quality social infrastructure, .
I believe a budget surplus is a pre-election promise but something that may not be economically sound. In order to deliver a surplus either less spending needs to take place or higher taxation needs to occur. Already the retail sector is down on profits by as much as 30% which means tax income is down by a similar amount in that sector. Families are already struggling so any penny pinching from the family budget to create a surplus will lead to political suicide. Any cuts in spending will slow the economy even further and result in higher unemployment. Can't think where he will get the surplus from.
While it is important for a return to a surplus so that taxpayer dollars are unneccessarily servicing interest payments. I believe an accelerated return to surplus is irresponsible. It smacks of political ideology and on the face of it seems irresponsible when it hits important and fragile parts of our society. We continue to have negative gearing that costs the taxpayer $5 billion+ each year and huge subsidies to the fossil fuel industry among others. It is clear that it wasn't economic management didn't save us from the GFC, mining did by hiding the parts of the economy that were affected and hence maintained consumer confidence.
Wayne has made a noose for his own neck - and that of the Government I might add. Better to have had some milestones which had to be reached as a condition precedent to a surplus would have led to better policy and better Government decision making. Yes, deficit reduction is good but at the right time - the issue is, is now the right time? I would think cutting spending at the very time when the country could be in for a rocky landing is not good policy when the opposite strategy would be being used to get the country out of recession. There is even a view in Europe at present that the current deficit reduction strategies might actually accentuate their debt problems because tightening fiscal policy is leading to increased usage of social spending on unemployment etc.
Whilst desirable, there is no urgency to balance the books. Don't skimp on infrastructure, research and education for the sake of the political imperative. The political debate should focus on how best to invest in Australia's future, running sustainable levels of debt if the investment is sound. We're better to argue about what constitutes good value for money rather than how much we want in the bank.
The money the government has already irresponsibly thrown away is necessarily going to cost something. I don't think it is a good thing that it will likely take a few years to recover from this government's spending splurges, but I do believe that it needs to take that long. The kinds of things politicians tend to cut on in the rare circumstances in which they do, seem to frequently be quite important things that lack powerful special interest groups such as scientific research, road maintenance, local government budgets etc. If I believed the government was capable of cutting in the many areas that I think government spending is doing little (or negative) good, such as commodity subsidies, consulting contracts (the many useless and expensive ones that is), middle class welfare and wasteful building projects, then I would be happy to support such spending cuts in pursuit of balancing the budget.
It is important that we aim for a balanced budget across the full span of the economic cycle.
I agree with imagele. The question really is: where are we now in the economic cycle? Are we in a period where there should be more 'give' by government, or more 'take'? With the Reserve Bank now making deep cuts to interest rates in order to spur flagging growth, it does appear counterproductive for the government to be moving in the opposite direction to the Reserve by cutting spending and effectively lowering growth.
The surplus will slow down the economy because it's actually reducing revenue and money flow from the real economy.
Whilst people may argue that now is the time to have a surplus so we can be better prepared for the future in case there is another GFC, it simply does not add up. The surplus has been achieved with the so called "reduction of spending", which essentially translates as social cuts and less money in the Australian economy. The consequence of this will be less money in Australian pockets and consequently less money in the real economy, pushing Australia into a recession.
This is also being done at a time of high risk in the Australian economy. The dollar is high which makes the country not competitive. Also, China's growth is slowing down, which means a smaller need of resources, which means the Australian resource economy relying on China will suffer. If the Australian economy is to recover, the government needs to increase revenue (through taxes to companies with high profits) and to inject that money back to Australian pockets and to the economy.
But we know, why that won't happen... because government all around the world are choosing to protect business and corporations rather than the individual. Choosing to lower taxes to high profit companies and impoverishing low and middle income citizens instead. Because in their view, we simply do not count when it comes to the economy.
It would be a better idea to budget for a manageable deficit, rather than have a politically required surplus.
This has been a very disappointing and erratic government, under both Rudd and Gillard. The insistence on returning the budget to surplus in 2012 looks to me to be politically driven and not grounded in strategic economic thinking. The government has thrown money around thoughtlessly on quite a few things and now proposes to cut deeply in areas that do not necessarily warrant cuts, simply for the sake of looking responsible. The pity of it is that this government can no longer be trusted either to spend wisely or to cut wisely. It simply lacks both wisdom and consistency. This compromises, also, any suggestion that it should raise taxes to create a surplus. Government already takes more than 24% of GDP and churns a heap of that through over large bureaucracies and into too many politically motivated welfare programs.
The only reason the Government is pushing the budget into surplus is to try score political points. They will probably fail in that anyway, but the real cost will be to the Australian people and the Australian economy. Record profits for banks, mining sector raking in billions... but cuts to the people and programs which can least afford it. When will the national interest and smart governance become the reason for government decision making? Only when we no longer let them get away with selling us down the river. The time for a budget surplus is when the economy is in danger of overheating. Now is not that time. This is high school level economics! There is a smell of panic in the push for a surplus regardless of economic conditions. I wish we had leaders with backbone and, dare I say it, integrity.
While I support spending cuts (living within our means), if the cuts are too big - particularly if they impact on foundational services such as Education and Health, the negative impact would I believe outweigh the benefit. I don't think we should be holding our politicians to their promises just for the sake of it - all wise leaders know when a change to a previous position is called for.
Budget deficit is less important than national deficit, we are low total budget deficit to GDP in country ranks, and it's not a great indicator anyway (North Korea has a total government deficit as a percent of GDP a tiny, very tiny, 1% of Australias - and it's hardly the miracle economy that Wayne Swan's "logic" would imply it should be).
Governments are unlike houses in an important way- they can raise taxes and finance their debts much more easily. For this reason, debt burdens are less of a problem for governments- sure not quite as little of a problem as the market had previously priced say European governments, but not a huge issue. The issue that does arise is when you've got so much debt that you can't make interest repayments (in this way a government actually is like a house- it just happens with much more debt, proportionally speaking). This is manifestly not true for Australia. Further, in a time where other economies are suffering we are in the unique position to be able to afford future-proofing investments in education, science, health & technology. A surplus in these circumstances is just an accounting trick. Howard has taught us a false lesson- it's not that governments should never spend money and seek surplus. Rather they should spend their money prudently.
In a rapidly changing world we are best to be prudent .. We did the stimulus and other things that put us in good stead compared with all others and we can afford to be more agressive in starting to get out of the debt spiral ..
I think the economy needs some targeted stimulus at present. The timing seems to be because of an unnecessary promise from the past and an approaching election. I can't see why it shouldn't be delayed a year or so. Economic reasons should be paramount. If he achieves it by the removal of silly middle class welfare inherited from the Howard Costello years - Seniors Health Card and tax free super pensions for the wealthy etc.- then I'd be happier.
I think the efforts/finances would be far better spent in re-organising the economy to have the replacement of power generation from fossil fuels to renewable sources. There is a great deal of new employment, redeployment of skills and new markets available in this.
This is the approach that will take the country through the next stage of the GFC, help to mitigate the on-rushing climatic catastrophe and stragically position this nation in a far stronger position, economically and otherwise.
I also think making the most vulnerable in society suffer in these austerity/cost cutting exercises is, not only self-defeating as a nation but, basically cruel. It seems to me there are plenty of under-taxed corporations/companies that are overdue on paying their way!
In a relative sense is $10 in my pocket after a big night out, a surplus?
Without an in-depth explanation on how our treasurer has manipulated figures to create the impression of sound fiscal management on a the surface level and on the kitchen tables that I've shared conversation on most view the CARBON TAX and just a way for the government to bail themselves out of hard times and over spending.
The majority of Australians don't want this tax, if they repelled it how would the figures look?
Oppose cutting expenditure on education and health
AGAINST (17)
Unemployment at a fraction over 5% and steady for some time now. Interest rates lowish and probably back on their way down. Inflation at a fraction over 2% and totally under control. The conditions are as good as they're ever going to be to work on getting the budget back into surplus this year or next.
With our whole economy balanced so precariously on Asia's need for iron, coal and anything else we can dig out of the ground, now is the time to take the plunge and restore balance to the economy.
Imagine if we have to do this without the resources boom. We'd be there with Greece, Spain and most of Europe and the US for that matter.
cut 3 words...
carbon tax, NBN
The government should look to balance the budget over the course of the economic cycle. During recessions, the balance rapidly turns to a large deficit so it follows that in a benign environment like the current one, with reasonable growth and low unemployment, the government should seek to run a small surplus. If the economy deteriorates, achieving a surplus would become impossible and Swan should abandon his target, but while conditions are good, his goal is entirely appropriate.
The path of least resistance politically is always to increase spending and cut taxes. Balancing the budget requires a bit of backbone, even in a strong economy.
Returning a budget surplus at this time was a necessary part of the government's plan to deal with the GFC. It is effectively a deferring of the cutbacks which the anti-stimulation pundits would have done at the worst possible time. It is also opportune to fund the surplus more limiting the assistance given to high-income earners to enable continued funding of programs for the lower-income people.
There's nothing misguided about pursuing a budget surplus in what are, for Australia, relatively benign economic times. The problem in this case is how Swan is going about it. Rather than slashing government spending (taking money out of the economy) he should be seeking additional revenues (relocating money from the private to the public). The wealth is there; astounding mining profits are racing out of the country, for example. It comes down to the Labour government's calculation as to what is most politically expedient for it. There's a famous quote about the art of taxation being about plucking the goose with the least amount of hissing. Labour's calculation is that the population at large would surrender their wellbeing more easily than the wealthy would surrender their gains.
"Not by slashing spending"
You really think the litany of failed fed gov programs dosnt present a case that the ALP or rather goverment in general is not an efficient administer of funds?
Welfare, levies, subsidies, consulting its a redtape nightmare
In my view pursuing a balances budget is extremely important as it allows Australia to lives within our means and maintains our credit rating. The arguement of saying we should wait until better times is very dangerous. Better times might not arrive for ten or fifteen years and if we have been running budget deficiets for all that time we will be in the same position as Greece is.
Given the non-mining sector's somewhat subdued demand recently, and the risks of aenemic aggregate demand generally in the economy, it would seem a sensible time for the government to keep priming the pump. But there are other ways to get the economy moving that do not involve the government using fiscal policy. In the policy tool box, there are various supply-side reforms that could be made to free up the way markets work, including but not limited to the labour market - although that's not a bad example because productivity (particularly in the service sector has been falling for some time). These are the kind of reforms that the a previous Labor administration, the Hawke-Keating Government, showed it had the generational wisdom and courage of conviction to tackle - attributes that the the Swan-Gillard-[ex-Rudd] administrations have had no appetite for. In short, sustained deficits aren't the only option, but they're the only one's seeming ly being discussed.
The previous surplus got us through the GFC. It is always wise to have some money up your sleeve for a rainy day, no pun intended.
I feel for Wayne Swan on this one. In real terms it doesn't really matter. I would rather greater expenditure and redistribution to counter Australia's growing inequality and infrastructure neglect. However failure to deliver the promised surplus is one more arrow for the Church of Abbot in their unholy crusade. So politically, I would rather Swan plays the political game in the the very slim hope of having a chance to implement the real reforms Australia needs, rather than give Abbott another free kick and knowing it will be a decade before any chance of significant reform on the raft of important issues that the ALP/Greens/Independents are more likely to pursue than the Libs.
Australia is the only country in the OECD to record 20 straight years of economic growth. Amazing really. One of the reasons were able to pull it off was we had plenty of money in the kitty (was it $20 billion) to spend on government projects when things really started to head south in 2008. These are the good years we're in. We don't know when the next GFC will hit. But when it does we'll want to be using surplus, not using borrowings. So Mr Swan's goal of getting into the black is only good.
These are meant to be the best of times (economically). If we can't balance the budget now, we never will!. Need a big mining tax to balance the economy
Despite all the media comments about how terrible the economy is, our economy is doing well, thanks in large part to the mining boom, which won't last forever. There are always more worthy and legitimate ways for governments to spend money than can be accommodated, regardless of how big a deficit we run or how much tax we raise. But continue like that for too long and you end up like Greece, Spain or Ireland - in a much worse situation. As someone else said, if not now, when? Running a deficit at a time like this means you can never justify a surplus.
Much as I dislike much of what Howard and Costello stood for, they left the government with a surplus, again because of the mining boom, which gave the Rudd government a lot more room to manoeuvre when the GFC hit. (Whether they spent our money wisely is another topic entirely of course).
we need a little surplus because if we don't and another financial crisis hits, we will not be in a very good position. we need to have at least one budget in surplus so that we can all breathe a bit easier if there is another crisis. if not, then he can just put it back into the economy
They need to retain as much cred as possible under current circumstances. I don't trust them (labour party members of govt) to make quality policy decisions which would lead to long term benefits for the Country and therefore limiting their proposed expenditure is essential.
Governments should always strive to balance the budget.
We're seeing (again) that austerity budgets don't work. From Greece, the USA to NZ, slashing spending takes money out of the economy which then crashes even harder. Well done, now those with protected incomes can make out like bandits. Why would Australia do the same? The obvious answer is that those riding the mining boom would be able to buy the rest of Australia at bargain prices. Good for them, bad for the other 20-odd million.
The two speed economy does give us an alternative - tax those who are doing exceptionally well right now. If the miners are right and that damages their profitability that would probably help rather than hinder the economy as a whole, by lowering our dollar and thus restoring some sanity to our balance of payments. (This is also why countries like China directly control the value of their currency - it gives them a huge lever to control their competitiveness in the global marketplace). Mining is also more profitable than usual right now, as well as doing better on usual business indicators than any other part of the economy (see for example http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/06/15/how-profitable-is-mining/)
So, Wayne Swan needs $10B to balance the budget? Miners are making $60B a year in profits? There's a possible solution here, if only he can see it.
Whilst mining is booming, domestic building, tourism and retail industries are suffering badly. In particular the service sector that is export based is suffering very badly at the moment and given the desirability of sustaining and developing this sector for the future wellbeing of all Australians, forcing a contraction of everything except mining seems very shrtsighted.